Turn negative on European credit. At current levels, spreads do not compensate for the risk of a recession materializing later this year or in early 2025....
Even after the Fed cuts rates, policy will remain restrictive for some time. Moreover, in history, stocks have tended to fall around the first rate cut. We remain cautious on the outlook for the economy and risk assets....
Democrats will not win a full sweep and implement drastic new tax hikes. However, our quant model still favors them to win the White House and just upgraded their odds. While we expect equity volatility around the election, investors do not need to worry about corporate tax hikes....
Our annual end-of-summer chartbook report traces the labor market deterioration that led us to downgrade equities at the beginning of August. It also highlights the soft-landing expectations that the credit and equity markets are discounting. We like the risk-reward profile of our newly defensive st...
MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June....
MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June....
In Section I, we discuss the economic and financial market outlook in the wake of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Equity investors may pursue a bullish rate-cut narrative for a few months, and it is possible that the economic data will remain consistent with a soft landing for a time. However, ...
Chinese property developers will require at least RMB 500 billion in additional government funding to prevent further declines in housing completions for the rest of 2024. However, without addressing the underlying challenges, any new rescue measures similar to those announced in May are unlikely to...
