It’s status quo for the SIFI banks, as they don’t see consumer credit performance materially worsening from now-normalized levels and they are not meaningfully exposed to commercial real estate losses....
We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and sugg...
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications....
Brazil’s two macro demons – a rising public debt-to-GDP ratio and inflation – have resurfaced and will worsen over the coming months. Yet, President Lula will pay lip service to fiscal concerns without enacting meaningful cutbacks. In addition, a politicized COPOM will cut rates aggressively next ye...
There is a broad-based deterioration of the economic data and a slowdown in consumer spending. On the bright side, inflation prints are better behaved. Rate cuts appear increasingly likely, but they won't stave off a recession. It is time to take profits from the GAI-related industries and bolster t...
The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?...
The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise....
