The Santa Claus rally is a repricing of the "soft landing" scenario as a likely economic outcome. Yet, many investors remain cautious, and harbor significant cash balances. Next year, repricing of various scenarios will continue, and volatility will be elevated. We remain in a "hard landing" camp an...
The recent decline in yields has powered European equities higher, however, this rally cannot last if earnings decline meaningfully. With this in mind, are our earnings models flagging risks for stocks next year?...
Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays....
Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024....
Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty....
The overarching macro theme for China in 2024 will be deflation and its impact on the economy, macro policies, and financial markets. Widespread deflation, in combination with high debt levels and falling real estate prices, has unleashed debt deflation and balance sheet recession dynamics. The latt...
Falling core inflation in the US over the short run will boost real disposable household income, which will keep consumption – ~ 70% of US GDP – strong. Over the medium- to-longer term – 3 to 5 years out – inflation risks rise as fiscal dominance becomes the Fed’s modus operandi, and economic fragme...
Meager credit growth and shrinking real wages will keep Thai inflation very low in the coming months. The currency will get support from an improving current account surplus. Fixed-income investors should upgrade Thailand from neutral to overweight within EM domestic bond portfolios....
In this Special Report, we take an in-depth look at the outlook for monetary policy in Australia and discuss the impact of an elevated policy rate on the economy. We recommend an underweight country allocation to Australian government bonds and look for opportunities to go long the Australian dollar...
Illegal immigration into the US has skyrocketed to record levels. Correctly accounting for this, US real consumption growth on a per head basis is already fragile. Meanwhile, the real bond yield is only now approaching the pain point that typically triggers a recession. Ahead of the upcoming US jobs...
