Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist in 2021 after a long and illustrious career, expresses his personal views about the long-run outlook...
The US and core OPEC 2.0 are – wittingly or not – laying the groundwork for a price band with a floor and cap on oil prices – at $79/bbl and $130/bbl, respectively – “at least” to May 2024. This accommodates multiple goals for both. To meaningfully support policy, the US would need to scale up purch...
While Mexican markets will continue selling off in absolute terms, their recent underperformance versus their EM peers is a temporary setback in a cyclical and structural bull market. Domestic politics are evolving from stable to bullish: the new president will rule in a technocratic manner, respect...
This week’s report contains an update on the Treasury curve’s recent bear-steepening trend and a look at different measures of long-maturity Treasury valuation....
The wall of maturities for Office and Multifamily Real Estate is upon us. The impact of rising interest rates is also being felt by Private Equity and Venture Capital. The difficulties faced by smaller US banks is providing further tailwinds to Direct Lenders. Hedge Funds will benefit from a more vo...
In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can al...
China’s economic growth will stagnate, at best, rather than revive. Lower valuations of Chinese equities are justified, and share prices have more downside. The RMB will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar....
In this insight we suggest two ways clients can use Equity Analyzer to navigate the evolving crisis in the Middle East. The first minimizes commodity exposure and the second uses relies on the BCA Score to add exposure to high quality Energy and Aerospace and Defense stocks....
