The CCP’s fiscal measures and property-market support are important steps to deal with China’s liquidity trap. The fiscal measures are the first such direct aid to households and small firms seen since 2020, which included tax relief and waived social security contributions, according to the IMF. Th...
Both USHQ portfolios outperformed along with the BCA Score long/short. We also provide an early look at a factor timing model we have been developing. It currently favors Technicals, Quality, and Size....
The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling to outperform. Investors should stay defensive overall....
The broader rally that started in June is premised on a Goldilocks narrative that will prove to be a fairy tale. Either by stubborn inflation. Or, by higher unemployment that shows that the war on inflation is far from costless. Or, by both. We discuss the implications for stocks and bonds. And we r...
The Global Equity Score fell for the second month in a row, but remains in neutral territory. The model upgraded Communication Services to bullish and downgraded Consumer Discretionary to neutral....
The resiliency of consumers through 2023 has surprised investors. However, consumer strength will fade into yearend as factors supporting growth in income and spending are waning. i.e., job gains are slowing, wage growth is decelerating, and excess savings are running out. Consumers are starting to ...
A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven....
