US financial instability reinforces our bearish investment outlook by weighing on economic growth and corporate earnings while also increasing US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk....
Have global equity markets reached a riot point? Is the Fed going on hold a sufficient condition for stocks to stage a cyclical rally? If not, what would be needed to produce such a rally? Does the Fed’s recent balance sheet expansion foreshadow a rise in the US money supply? This report provides an...
Systematically important central banks continue to compound policy errors, which will feed higher headline inflation. Hiking interest rates to induce labor-market slack – i.e., higher unemployment – to bring down core inflation will reduce demand for scarce commodities as incomes fall. It also will ...
Both iron ore and steel will have oversupplied markets in 2023. The path of least resistance for iron ore and steel prices will be down in the coming months. We expect both iron ore and steel prices to drop by 15%-20% from their current levels. We recommend that investors short stocks for global ste...
The Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to ramp up its defense spending. This will greatly benefit its defense industry, especially if defense coordination across the EU increases....
Monetary tightening has brought the vulnerabilities of the mid-size banks into the spotlight, and their peril will weigh on economic growth. Therefore, we favor defensives over cyclicals. We also downgrade Banks to underweight from neutral as the industry faces multiple headwinds, ranging from slowi...
The Bank of Japan is about to get new leadership when Kazuo Ueda takes over as governor in April. Will there be a new monetary policy to go along with the new governor? We attempt to answer that question, and what that means for global bond markets and the yen, in this Special Report....
