The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies and as such reinforces our underweight position in Turkish equitie...
A restrictive policy by the ECB and a weak manufacturing sector will create headwinds for European stocks this summer. How should investors position their portfolios in this context?...
The conventional economic thinking about the likely impact of AI is misguided because it extrapolates linearly from what AI can do today to what it can do tomorrow. Just as the investment community and the broader public were blindsided by the exponential rise in Covid cases during the early days of...
The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound....
Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long Turkish equity volatility....
The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound....
The crisis hitting regional and local banks in the US is adding to oil-price volatility and gold demand. The crisis arguably is fallout from the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, and contributes to the upending economic relationships that reliably informed policy, investments and forecast...
An unprecedented trade surplus has given Indonesia a rare opportunity to transition into a lower real rates regime. The sustainability of Indonesian stocks outperformance is contingent upon whether the authorities can do so....
April’s CPI report was soft enough to justify a Fed pause in June. However, the overall economic data still don’t justify the magnitude of rate cuts priced into the yield curve....
There is a 50:50 chance of experiencing a major deflationary shock in the next two years, and an even greater likelihood on a longer timeframe. The good news is that several assets provide a good insurance against this risk, and that this insurance is now cheap. Plus we highlight a compelling commod...
