This is the first of two Special Reports aiming to answer client questions in response to the recent dramatic changes in stock-bond correlations. In this report we focus on what role US Treasurys have played since 1872, how the current regime shift in stock-bond correlation compares to 150-years of ...
The Small Caps and high vol stocks outperform during an optimistic January. As a result of its low vol tilt, USHQ underperformed the SPY, however the USHQ SMID Cap strategy outperformed its benchmark through strong selection in growth sectors....
Markets are rallying because the end of the rate hiking cycle is in sight. We believe that eventually concerns about slowing growth will displace worries about the Fed and inflation, but for now, we are getting on board with the rally. We are upgrading Small to overweight and downgrading Large to un...
Mexico is caught between crosscurrents. On the one hand, headline and core inflation are at multi-decade highs. On the other hand, genuine inflationary pressures are subdued, and fiscal and monetary policies are hawkish. Going forward, the economy will decelerate meaningfully, but likely achieve a s...
The Fed’s actions at its meeting last Wednesday were no surprise – downshifting to 25 basis points while guiding for more hikes was widely expected – but Chair Powell’s newly conciliatory tone at the press conference helped to spark a two-day equity rally. We remain overweight equities, expecting th...
This week, we articulate what the actions of the three major central banks that met (Fed, ECB and BoE) mean for currency markets. This is within the context of our analysis of the latest data releases in the G10, that allows us to calibrate currency strategy....
The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year....
Financial markets were taken on a wild ride between Wednesday and Friday of this week, with hugely important monetary policy meetings in the US, euro area and UK along with a rash of economic data. Despite all the news, noise and market volatility, the underlying message for monetary policy and bond...
