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Economy

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CoreMacro
European Earnings Models Update

The recent decline in yields has powered European equities higher, however, this rally cannot last if earnings decline meaningfully. With this in mind, are our earnings models flagging risks for stocks next year?

Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
2 years ago
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Portfolio
What Else To Read
Special Report

Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays.

Garry Evans
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
Strategy Outlook – 2024 Key Views: Here Comes The Kink

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

Peter Berezin
2 years ago
AI
Essentials
US Jobs Data Deliver A Positive Surprise
The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was corroborated by the unemployment…
2 years ago
Essentials
UK Households See Inflation Easing Over Near Term, Still Skeptical Over Longer Term
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in the August survey and the lowest…
2 years ago
Essentials
Receding Inflation Boosts US Household Sentiment
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent an optimistic signal about the attitude of the US consumer on Friday, handily beating consensus estimates across the board. The preliminary headline index came in at 69.4, up from 62.0 in November, surprising…
2 years ago
Essentials
The Key Macro Theme for China In 2024
The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local governments, enterprises, and consumers. Yet,…
2 years ago
Essentials
A Political Fed
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Fed will be surprisingly dovish in 2024 but it has a poor track record of avoiding recessions once monetary policy is restrictive. The independence of the Fed is misunderstood: The Fed is…
2 years ago
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GeoMacro
Key Views: US Politics In 2024

Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.

Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Kuri
2 years ago
China
Essentials
Fade The Positive Surprise From Chinese Exports
On the surface, Chinese export data delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, painting a favorable picture of the global manufacturing cycle. Exports unexpectedly grew on a year-over-year basis in November for the first time since April. The 0.5% y/y…
2 years ago

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